August 22, 2026
MARKETS
The relationship between box prices and cash prices for live cattle has come unlinked. The usual improvement in cash prices that occurs in sync with higher box prices is not happening. Instead the processors were able to advances prices for boxes while reducing cost of live or dressed cattle. At the same time reporting of cash markets by USDA is performing a disappearing act with three of the major feeding regions not being reported because of confidentiality. The intent of Congress, to make markets transparent with the strength of a law to force compliance, is all but meaningless.
Presidential news releases tend to occur over social media. Trump announced elimination of all quotes on imported beef as well as tariffs. Trump promises 25% lower prices.
The trade in the north concluded with live prices ranging from $225- $227 and dressed prices $355-$356. Cattle owners in the south sold cattle for $225-$226.
Close outs at the nation’s feedyards are in the red and they are reflecting the sharp fall in cash prices that has taken cash prices downward by $35 cwt.. The weekly supply of fed cattle will remain tight through year’s end, but packers will gain leverage in the balance between cattle owners and processors. Volumes of cattle traded in the cash markets continue to decline. Finding the market in the cash markets will become more difficult.
This past week’s slaughter was an estimated 517,000 head — 6,000 over the previous week and 33,000 under last year. This past week the slaughter volume increased as packers took the opportunity to make hay while the sun shines. Profits have returned to the packers helped by a reduction in slaughter capacities. The beef production for the week remains under last year. The seasonal improvement in beef demand was felt despite the larger slaughter. Both box prices and live cash prices for cattle are now trading under last year. The status for fed supplies will remain tight through year end and the industry will be watching how the plant closings change the leverage between processor and feeder.
AUGUST 1 CATTLE ON FEED
United States Cattle on Feed Up 2 Percent
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.1 million head on August 1, 2026. The inventory was 2 percent above August 1, 2025.
Placements in feedlots during July totaled 1.42 million head, 11 percent below 2025. Net placements were
1.37 million head. Placements were the lowest for July since the series began in 1996. During July, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 310,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 215,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 320,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 322,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 185,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 70,000 head.
Marketings of fed cattle during July totaled 1.62 million head, 7 percent below 2025. Marketings were the lowest for July since the series began in 1996.
Other disappearance totaled 55,000 head during July, 8 percent above 2025.
The impact of cattle on feed reports on the markets is declining. This report was mildly bullish but the government numbers that rely on imprecise placement data have lost the ability to influence the market.
Benchmarking. On Tuesday of each week, USDA releases a weighted average price report for all cattle sold the previous week. The report summarizes the distributed price levels for each category of sale such as Negotiated/Formula/Forward Contracts. Beef producers are able to measure the marketing price for their cattle compared to the national averages.
The Comprehensive Fed Cattle Weekly Report offers the most current information on the current status of fed cattle being harvested. The report is published each Tuesday and includes the previous week’s change in carcass weights and quality grading. The latest report shows carcass weights at 943#, 3# higher than the prior week, and 25# heavier than last year. The combined steer and heifer weights can easily be influenced when the proportion of steers to heifers in the weekly slaughter changes. Quality grade was up 1.1% from the previous week at 87.0%. The quality grade has begun to increase and grading will remain high historically.
The Weekly Steer and Heifer Grading Report reflects regional supplies of choice and prime cattle and often is determinative of regional differences in live prices. The report also indicates the current status of fed cattle offerings in each area.
Forward Cattle Contracts: Forward contracts are always a portion of the inventories the processors maintain for slaughter. Offered basis levels will move up and down as processors want to add to forward contracts or not. The driver in forward purchases of cattle will always be forward sales of beef. Packers will always be willing to take a price risk off the producer’s plate in return for an extra margin. The movement of futures prices, either up or down, will relate to the number of forward contracts.
Formula and Negotiated Grids. The Price and Distribution Report delineates the various selling methods and net results.
The Cattle Contracts Report details the percent of contracts by volume of cattle and by number of contracts for selling cattle. Formula selling that was once the largest marketing method and still is, but is losing ground to negotiated grids where the premiums and discounts are set but the base price is negotiated.
Retailers will be looking beyond the summer heat. Improved demand should be expected as summer temperatures segue into cooler daily highs. Lower box prices converted to lower prices for individually priced portions on supermarket shelves, will catch the eye of price weary consumers. With the grind dominating beef sales, imports will continue to rise and those lean cuts will be blended with excess fat from the beef plants.
USDA Prime cuts are carving out a larger slice of the grocery offerings. Many retailers are struggling to market these cuts and often feature discounts to encourage consumption. This is a benefit for consumers who can find bargains on premium cuts. Heavy carcasses also are changing the processing specifications for some cuts. Many of the rib cuts are now cutting off the lip to make the ribeye steaks smaller.
The Cutout. Box prices posted large gains for the week mainly boosted by the rise in middle meat prices. Large gains this week have returned positive margins to the beef processors. Box prices remain under prior year. Slaughter volumes will continue to be dictated by processing margins.
Replacement markets
Major adjustments are in the cards for replacement cost. Heat has delayed many marketing plans and now falling futures are forecasting large drops in the cash prices for both fed and replacement cattle. The major feeding firms are backing off offerings and taking a wait and see attitude. Forward contracts will be difficult to find. Heavy marketing periods are on the horizon and plant and feedyard downsizing will be on the front burner. Higher grain prices are adding to the pressures on replacement costs.
Seasonally health problems begin for unweaned calves. Buyers are wary of stress caused by heat and weaning and many will avoid high risk purchases. Some sellers will also attempt to avoid marketing calves through local sales to eliminate extra movement and costs.
August and September feature large offerings of cattle for delivery this fall. Many owners of those cattle are hoping to receive today’s prices for tomorrow’s deliveries and may find disappointment in the bids offered for deferred deliveries. The stairway for prices is a downward slope extending outward and many feeding operations are shortening inventories for forward bought cattle.
The Drought Monitor is a map showing regions of the country under stress for lack of normal rainfall. The map is compiled over a week and updated every Thursday with data collected through Tuesday of that week.
*** Close ***
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers 5.00-15.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves 10.00-20.00 lower. Demand moderate for feeder cattle. Demand light to moderate for calves as summer’s heat seems relentless. The heat dome moved more to the south letting in some cooler temps and much needed rains from the Oklahoma Panhandle and eastward over North Central Oklahoma. Cattle futures ended the day mixed. Receipts continue to run 50-60 percent of a year ago. Quality plain to average. Supply included: 100% Feeder Cattle (60% Steers, 35% Heifers, 5% Bulls). Feeder cattle supply over 600 lbs was 76%.
Compared to last week: Steer and heifer calves 15.00-25.00 lower in a light test on most weight classes. Demand moderate. Two large draftsof heifer sold very well today serving as the highlight of the sale: 69 heifers 568lbs at 387.50 and 83 heifers 604lbs at 365. It was noted that the buyer of these two drafts had bought these same cattle in the past. Supply included 48% un-weaned cattle. Estimated receipts for tomorrow’s feeder sale is 3500. Supply included: 100% Feeder Cattle (36% Steers, 47% Heifers, 17% Bulls). Feeder cattle supply over 600 lbs 30%
Feeder Cattle Cash Index. The index is tracking the moves in cash prices.
Video and Internet Replacement Cattle Auctions. The movement from traditional private treaty sales to Internet auctions has been slow but steady. Producers have chosen this option as the primary marketing tool for most of the cattle offered in the replacement markets. The market that was once dominated by one firm has seen new competition from multiple trade platforms.
National Weekly Feeder Summary released on Friday of each week tracks the national prices by region for last week.
Grain Futures. Corn prices moved above $5 level in the December contract. The Pro Farmer crop tour estimated the U.S. corn crop at 15.344 billion bushels, with an average yield of 173.2 bushel/acre vs the USDA’s August Crop Production estimate of 16.013 billion bushels and a yield of 180.7 bu/acre. Recent rains across much of the corn belt have improved crop conditions with flooding damaging the crop in some areas. The corn basis will soon move to the December contract. Corn basis levels in Guymon, Oklahoma are at +$1.05 — basis the September contract.
WHAT VALUE LOYALTY?
President Trump is known to highly value loyalty. Aides to the President are often chosen for their closeness and allegiance to his agenda and commitment to him personally. This fact highlighted the irony in his announcement on Friday of government intervention in the markets to lower the price of beef. This was an affront to one of his most loyal constituencies – beef producers.
Adding salt to the wound was the knowledge that insiders paying $100,000/month knew about the announcement in time to profit by the $300-$400 decline in the futures Friday morning and allowing them to cover their shorts by end of day – not bad for a day trade. Manipulating the markets and the data released into the markets is becoming modus operandi for this administration.
Like other Presidential announcements, few details were available other than the promise the action would deliver a 25% reduction in the price of beef imports and its immediate impact on hamburger prices. Imports have been naturally increasing all year as the markets adjust to domestic shortages. Abandoning long standing quotes on imported beef is a mistake. Those quotas have been negotiated and vetted over time to deliver fair trade policies with all foreign countries.
The primary assault of this action was on the free market system. Free markets get their signals from price. The cure and relief for product shortages are high prices. High prices stimulate and encourage more production and, in this case, more cattle. The last thing the beef industry needs is an action that interrupts the growth of the national cow herd by artificially lowering prices for the product.
CARDINAL RULE FOR COMMODITY TRADING
“IF IT IS OBVIOUS, IT HAS GOT TO BE WRONG!”
CATTLE REPORT LIBRARY
Change is a necessity for any sustainable industry and sometimes necessary changes encounter obstacles in the form of stalwarts who refuse change. The Cattle Report has created a library page of opinions pieces published on these pages advocating fundamental and structure changes for the industry.
NOTE TO READERS
Sections of the newsletter are designed with hyperlinks to the appropriate source pages. The hyperlinks are in light blue within the report.
EXPLANATIONS OF BREAKEVEN/CLOSE OUT TABLES
Regional differences in grain and cattle basises create a difficulty in modeling a national composite for current close outs or a proforma forward look at a breakeven. Readers should consider your own area for adjustments to these models. Most calculations are basis relevant prices in Guymon, Oklahoma.
CURRENT BREAKEVEN PROJECTION
The Cattle Report introduces the FEEDER METER. The report estimates profit or loss for currently purchased feeder steers and projects a result 180 days out. The chart is interactive and updated every 15 minutes in real time based on changes in futures markets in grain and cattle. Corn basis information is based on current trade prices adjusted every two weeks. Feeder prices are based on the USDA index price for 800# steers and fed cattle sales are $2 cwt. premium the appropriate futures contract.
CURRENT CLOSE OUT
The Cattle Report estimates current profit or loss on cattle placed on feed 180 days ago. This report generated from industry averages attempts to simulate a typical close out based on the feeder index for 800# steers 180 days ago. The close out assumes grain was purchased at market each month. Selling prices and interest rates are based on prevailing benchmark quoted prices. This chart will change weekly.
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