September 5, 2026

MARKETS

The week closed with cattle in the south bringing $222-3 live and as a base for negotiated grids. Earlier sales in the north mid week were from $217-$219 live and $345-$350 dressed but changed moving up to $223 live late Friday.

This past week’s slaughter was an estimated 526,000 head — 16,000 under the previous week and 32,000 over last year that was a holiday week. This past week the slaughter volume declined as packers attempted to stem the decline seasonally caused by post Labor day demand for beef. Profits have returned to the packers and they are hoping for a continuation rather than a brief repite. Total beef production for the week remains under last year. The status for fed supplies will remain tight through year end and the industry will be watching how the plant closings and beef imports change the leverage between processor and feeder.

CATTLE FUTURES

Benchmarking. On Tuesday of each week, USDA releases a weighted average price report for all cattle sold the previous week. The report summarizes the distributed price levels for each category of sale such as Negotiated/Formula/Forward Contracts. Beef producers are able to measure the marketing price for their cattle compared to the national averages.

The Comprehensive Fed Cattle Weekly Report offers the most current information on the current status of fed cattle being harvested. The report is published each Tuesday and includes the previous week’s change in carcass weights and quality grading. The latest report shows carcass weights at 945#, 2# lower than the prior week, and 21# heavier than last year. The combined steer and heifer weights can easily be influenced when the proportion of steers to heifers in the weekly slaughter changes. Quality grade was down .1% from the previous week at 86.2%. The quality grade has begun to increase and grading will remain high historically.

The Weekly Steer and Heifer Grading Report reflects regional supplies of choice and prime cattle and often is determinative of regional differences in live prices. The report also indicates the current status of fed cattle offerings in each area.

Forward Cattle Contracts:  Forward contracts are always a portion of the inventories the processors maintain for slaughter. Offered basis levels will move up and down as processors want to add to forward contracts or not. The driver in forward purchases of cattle will always be forward sales of beef. Packers will always be willing to take a price risk off the producer’s plate in return for an extra margin. The movement of futures prices, either up or down, will relate to the number of forward contracts.

Formula and Negotiated Grids. The Price and Distribution Report delineates the various selling methods and net results.

The Cattle Contracts Report details the percent of contracts by volume of cattle and by number of contracts for selling cattle. Formula selling that was once the largest marketing method and still is, but is losing ground to negotiated grids where the premiums and discounts are set but the base price is negotiated.

Beef Feature Activity Index.

Retailers will be looking beyond the summer heat. Improved demand should be expected as summer temperatures segue into cooler daily highs. Lower box prices converted to lower prices for individually priced portions on supermarket shelves, will catch the eye of price weary consumers. With the grind dominating beef sales, imports will continue to rise and those lean cuts will be blended with excess fat from the beef plants.

USDA Prime cuts are carving out a larger slice of the grocery offerings. Many retailers are struggling to market these cuts and often feature discounts to encourage consumption. This is a benefit for consumers who can find bargains on premium cuts. Heavy carcasses also are changing the processing specifications for some cuts. Many of the rib cuts are now cutting off the lip to make the ribeye steaks smaller.

The Cutout. Box prices were mixed in late week trading. Box prices remain under prior year. Slaughter volumes will continue to be dictated by processing margins.

It is important to remember that spot box prices are much like spot cash prices for live cattle. Most boxes are sold under formulas and do not always have the same fluctuations as the spot market.

Replacement markets

Major adjustments are in the cards for replacement cost. Heat, rising grain prices, and falling fed cattle prices are setting the stage for major declines in the replacement market. Already sellers are finding buyers often non-responsive to offerings. The major feeding firms are backing off offerings and taking a wait and see attitude. Forward contracts will be difficult to find. Heavy marketing periods are on the horizon and plant and feedyard downsizing will be on the front burner.

Late summer/fall video auctions are showing many pens of cattle passed out. These cattle will reappear on future auctions and will find a home at some point and at some unknown price. Sellers moving groups of cattle to auction markets know the cattle will sell, but they have no control over the price. Many of the replacement cattle moving to market are returning losses to the owners.

Weather will always influence the market for replacement cattle. The main grain belt in hte southern plains where many cattle are grazed on winter wheat are dry. Planting grain fields requires rain to plant and give plants a chance to grow. Operators are hesitant about acquiring an inventory of cattle for winter grazing until they are confident in the existence of a viable forage for grazing.

Seasonally health problems begin for unweaned calves. Buyers are wary of stress caused by heat and weaning and many will avoid high risk purchases. Some sellers will also attempt to avoid marketing calves through local sales to eliminate extra movement and costs.

The Drought Monitor is a map showing regions of the country under stress for lack of normal rainfall. The map is compiled over a week and updated every Thursday with data collected through Tuesday of that week.

Oklahoma City. —

Compared to last week: Feeder steers unevenly steady. Feeder heifers steady to 5.00 lower, but some lower prices also due to quality and or conditions. Demand moderate to good. A significant number of un-weaned calves were included and these trended lower. Steer and heifer calves 8.00-15.00 lower. Demand limited for calves. Cattle futures managed to close mostly in the green today. Persistent high temperatures and lack of rainfall continue to impact the region, and these conditions are expected to remain for at least the next 10 days. Overall, the quality of cattle available was mostly average, end attractive. Supply included: 100% Feeder Cattle (56% Steers, 39% Heifers, 5% Bulls). Feeder cattle supply over 600 lbs was 59%

OKC West 

Compared to last week: Steer calves over 500lbs 5.00-10.00 higher, under 500lbs steady. Heifer calves not enough comparables either this week or last week to set a trend but a firm undertone noted. The market held together very well today despite several negative factors: CME cattle futures closed in the red, quality was mostly plain, and hot and dry conditions continue with little relief in sight. Even with those pressures hanging over the market, buyers remained surprisingly positive and demand held up better than expected. Estimated receipts for tomorrow’s feeder sale is 2500. Supply included: 100% Feeder Cattle (37% Steers, 43% Heifers, 21% Bulls). Feeder cattle supply over 600 lbs was 23%)

Feeder Cattle Cash Index. The index is tracking the moves in cash prices.   

Video and Internet Replacement Cattle Auctions. The movement from traditional private treaty sales to Internet auctions has been slow but steady. Producers have chosen this option as the primary marketing tool for most of the cattle offered in the replacement markets. The market that was once dominated by one firm has seen new competition from multiple trade platforms.

National Weekly Feeder Summary released on Friday of each week tracks the national prices by region for last week.   

Grain Futures. Corn prices reached an resistence point and finally dropped off recent highs. Feed cost during the coming year will make a sharp move upward making all protein meats more expensive. Severe heat has damaged much of the crop in the southern plains. The corn basis moved to the December contract. Corn basis levels are moving higher and in Guymon, Oklahoma are at +$1.15 — basis the December contract.

“DIRIGISME”

the most precise single-word term for an industry being managed by government direction rather than by market forces.

President Trump is a self-described showman. On August 26th he announced the damaging news of removing tariffs on 300 thousand tons of imported beef promising consumers lower beef prices in time for the midterm elections and earning the ire of his strongest backers as cattle markets tanked. Beef producers and the media portrayed the action as a betrayal and Trump responded with a media blitz of special initiatives to assist American cattle ranchers.

The following is an AI generated report of government initiatives since the import announcement attempting to win back Trump supporters.

August 31: USDA “Ranchers First Initiative”

1. BRAND heifer-retention insurance

USDA announced development of a Beef Retention and National Development, or BRAND, endorsement under Livestock Risk Protection.

It is intended to ensure the economic value of keeping a heifer for breeding over a two-year period. If her projected or realized slaughter value becomes greater than the value of retaining her as breeding stock, the proposed policy would cover the difference. This is the action most directly aimed at encouraging herd rebuilding.

Important limitation: USDA described the structure but did not provide an effective date, premium information or enrollment procedure in the announcement.

2. Disaster assistance on Grassland CRP acreage

USDA will allow ranchers to use the Emergency Conservation Program on acreage enrolled in Grassland CRP. This is intended to help repair fences, water facilities and other critical infrastructure following wildfires or natural disasters, without losing the land’s Grassland CRP status.

3. SPUR guaranteed loans for regional processors

USDA announced creation of a Strengthening Processing for U.S. Ranchers Guaranteed Loan Program. Its stated purposes include:

  • Supporting regional slaughter and processing capacity.
  • Helping establish producer or processor cooperatives.
  • Allowing smaller processors to expand.
  • Increasing the range of animal proteins processed.
  • Strengthening processing continuity following announced plant closures. [usda.gov]

This is intended to give cattle producers more alternatives to the largest packers. The release does not specify loan limits, rates or an application opening date.

4. Priority for American beef in government purchasing

USDA said it will encourage federal and state institutions to give priority to locally processed American beef, including purchases for:

  • Military facilities.
  • Veterans’ facilities.
  • Hospitals.
  • Prisons and correctional facilities.
  • Other participating federal and state institutions.

This could create incremental demand for domestically raised cattle, although the announcement does not establish a mandatory procurement percentage or purchasing volume.

5. Beginning and veteran rancher initiative

USDA announced a new initiative focused on beginning and veteran farmers and ranchers, including coordination with military transition and veterans’ programs. USDA also highlighted:

  • Farm Service Agency loans for land, cattle and equipment.
  • NRCS grazing and conservation assistance.
  • Livestock insurance access.
  • Extended beginning-rancher eligibility and premium assistance under the administration’s tax legislation. September 4: Two Trump executive orders

Executive Order 1: “Supporting America’s Ranchers”

Trump signed this order today. It directs action in four principal areas.

6. Government-wide review of regulations affecting ranchers

Within 90 days, USDA, Interior, the U.S. Trade Representative, FDA and the Small Business Administration must report on regulations, guidance and policies affecting ranchers and recommend changes intended to improve financial viability and market access.

This is a mandatory review and recommendation process. It is not yet an actual repeal of particular regulations.

7. Possible delisting or downlisting of gray and Mexican wolves

Within 90 days, Interior must determine whether gray wolves and Mexican wolves meet Endangered Species Act recovery criteria. If the criteria are met, Interior must begin the process of delisting or downlisting them.

The order also calls for:

  • A legislative recommendation on delisting or downlisting.
  • Engagement with states concerning state protections and lethal-take standards.
  • Consideration of more responsive lethal-removal authorization where wolves threaten livestock or people.

The order does not itself immediately delist the wolves. It initiates evaluations and possible subsequent action.

8. Easier and more consistent predator-loss compensation

USDA and Interior are directed to consider revising compensation regulations, evidence requirements and program handbooks so predator-loss claims can be evaluated consistently and more quickly. The order specifically says agencies should consider evidence beyond subcutaneous hemorrhaging when appropriate.

9. Review of mandatory country-of-origin labeling for beef

Within 90 days, USDA and USTR must review whether existing law permits mandatory country-of-origin labeling for beef and provide an economic analysis. Depending on that analysis, USDA may:

  • Issue or amend regulations if existing law allows it; or
  • Develop proposed legislation for Congress.
  • This is potentially important for distinguishing American beef from imported product, but the order does not immediately establish mandatory COOL.

10. Direction to seek consumer price benefits

Federal agencies are directed, where legally permitted, to ensure that the order’s food-production and supply measures benefit consumers through lower prices to the maximum extent possible.

Executive Order 2: “Promoting Fair Competition in Livestock Markets and Expanding Market Access for American Meat Producers”

11. Increased Packers and Stockyards Act enforcement

USDA must prioritize and expand investigations of packers and other covered businesses for:

  • Unfair or deceptive conduct.
  • Unreasonable preferences or advantages.
  • Restraints on commerce.
  • Market or price manipulation.

The order directs USDA to increase enforcement staffing and investigative capacity, coordinate with the Justice Department and deliver a report within 60 days describing existing enforcement work, resource needs and its enforcement plan for the following year.

12. Review and strengthening of producer protections

USDA must review its regulations, guidance and enforcement policies under the Packers and Stockyards Act and revise them where legally appropriate to strengthen producer protections and deterrence.

13. Expanded interstate sales by smaller processors

USDA must expand participation in:

  • State Meat and Poultry Inspection programs.
  • The Cooperative Interstate Shipment Program.
  • The Talmadge-Aiken cooperative inspection program.

The objective is to allow more qualifying state-inspected meat to be marketed across state lines while maintaining federal food-safety standards.

14. Processor technical assistance and “one-stop” information resource

The order directs USDA to:

  • Establish training and technical assistance for small and very small processors.
  • Create or support an online resource showing slaughter and processing availability.
  • Appoint a USDA coordinator to work with ranchers and small and midsize processors.

15. Modernization of meat inspection rules

USDA is directed to modernize inspection, improve processing efficiency and technology, and remove reporting or prescriptive requirements that do not advance essential food-safety needs, subject to existing law.

16. Reports on barriers to interstate commerce

Within 60 days, USDA must report on:

  • Participation in state-federal cooperative inspection programs.
  • Legal and regulatory obstacles to broader interstate sales.
  • Federal statutory and trade restrictions affecting state-inspected or custom-exempt meat.

17. Presidential direction to establish SPUR guaranteed loans

The second order formally directs USDA, subject to law and available appropriations, to establish the SPUR guaranteed-loan program for small and regional beef processors. This converts the August 31 USDA announcement into a presidential directive.

Four additional USDA actions announced September 4

18. Nearly one million additional Grasslands CRP acres

USDA said it will enroll nearly one million new acres in Grasslands CRP. Participating landowners can receive rental payments and cost-share assistance while keeping eligible land in grazing and pasture use.

19. Expansion of remote beef grading

USDA said it will work to nearly double participation by producers and plants in the Agricultural Marketing Service Remote Grading Program. The program uses remote technology to give smaller facilities access to official USDA carcass grading without requiring a grader to remain permanently onsite.

20. Expansion of instrument-enhanced grading

USDA plans to increase the use of instrument-enhanced grading. USDA says the system was being used on approximately 20% of fed cattle, about 20,000 head per day, and can reduce grader staffing requirements at some facilities.

21. Federal response to “agricultural lawfare”

USDA said it will redirect its agricultural legal strike force toward allegedly abusive federal, state or local legal actions affecting ranching operations, particularly matters involving what USDA describes as unfair or excessive eminent-domain claim

CARDINAL RULE FOR COMMODITY TRADING

“IF IT IS OBVIOUS, IT HAS GOT TO BE WRONG!”

CATTLE REPORT LIBRARY

Change is a necessity for any sustainable industry and sometimes necessary changes encounter obstacles in the form of stalwarts who refuse change. The Cattle Report has created a library page of opinions pieces published on these pages advocating fundamental and structure changes for the industry.

NOTE TO READERS

Sections of the newsletter are designed with hyperlinks to the appropriate source pages. The hyperlinks are in light blue within the report.

EXPLANATIONS OF BREAKEVEN/CLOSE OUT TABLES

Regional differences in grain and cattle basises create a difficulty in modeling a national composite for current close outs or a proforma forward look at a breakeven. Readers should consider your own area for adjustments to these models. Most calculations are basis relevant prices in Guymon, Oklahoma.

CURRENT BREAKEVEN PROJECTION

The Cattle Report introduces the FEEDER METER. The report estimates profit or loss for currently purchased feeder steers and projects a result 180 days out.  The chart is interactive and updated every 15 minutes in real time based on changes in futures markets in grain and cattle. Corn basis information is based on current trade prices adjusted every two weeks. Feeder prices are based on the USDA index price for 800# steers and fed cattle sales are $2 cwt. premium the appropriate futures contract.

CURRENT CLOSE OUT

The Cattle Report estimates current profit or loss on cattle placed on feed 180 days ago. This report generated from industry averages attempts to simulate a typical close out based on the feeder index for 800# steers 180 days ago. The close out assumes grain was purchased at market each month. Selling prices and interest rates are based on prevailing benchmark quoted prices. This chart will change weekly.

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