June 13, 2026
MARKETS
JBS announced the closing of two small plants in Pennslvania and Tennessee (one a small slaughter plant and the other a value added plant). Packers let the market and futures absorb the news before lowering bids to $254 then $255 where some cattle were bought, but later sales moved to $256. Dressed sales in the north were mainly at $405-6. Prices were steady to $1 lower for the week.
Screwworm news will move into the background as logistic issues dominate concerns of beef producers and health officials. Case totals are now at ten with no way to know the number of unreported cases. Competing and conflicting movement rules are developing by State Animal Health Officials. Producers are resolved to deal with screwworms as just another health hazard with viable treatment options.
This past week’s slaughter was 524,000 head — 9,000 under last week and one of the lowest non-holiday weeks in a long time. The slaughter volume was 36,000 under last year. The processors are hoping to revive beef demand by cutting back slaughter volumes and there should be a response in the coming week for box prices. Retailers are hestitant to sell beef at a loss — reluctance has slowed movement in the nation’s supermarkets. The backdrop for fed supplies will remain tight and cattle owners will hold some leverage as the industry transitions to increasing calf supplies in the coming year. Slaughter weights are down and so is the grading percentage causing the spread between choice and select to widen.
Futures are lower on the plant closing news from JBS.
Benchmarking. On Tuesday of each week, USDA releases a weighted average price report for all cattle sold the previous week. The report summarizes the distributed price levels for each category of sale such as Negotiated/Formula/Forward Contracts. Beef producers are able to measure the marketing price for their cattle compared to the national averages.
The Comprehensive Fed Cattle Weekly Report offers the most current information on the current status of fed cattle being harvested. The report is published each Tuesday and includes the previous week’s change in carcass weights and quality grading. The latest report shows carcass weights at 948#, 7# lower than the prior week, and 40# heavier than last year. The combined steer and heifer weights can easily be influenced when the proportion of steers to heifers in the weekly slaughter changes. Quality grade was down 1.0% from the previous week at 87.6%. The quality grade should begin a slow decline lasting into summer, but with out weights at record highs, grading will remain high historically.
The Weekly Steer and Heifer Grading Report reflects regional supplies of choice and prime cattle and often is determinative of regional differences in live prices. The report also indicates the current status of fed cattle offerings in each area.
Forward Cattle Contracts: Forward contracts are always a portion of the inventories the processors maintain for slaughter. Offered basis levels will move up and down as processors want to add to forward contracts or not. The driver in forward purchases of cattle will always be forward sales of beef. Packers will always be willing to take a price risk off the producer’s plate in return for an extra margin. The movement of futures prices, either up or down, will relate to the number of forward contracts.
Formula and Negotiated Grids. The Price and Distribution Report delineates the various selling methods and net results.
The Cattle Contracts Report details the percent of contracts by volume of cattle and by number of contracts for selling cattle. Formula selling that was once the largest marketing method and still is, but is losing ground to negotiated grids where the premiums and discounts are set but the base price is negotiated.
Beef demand will now move into summer periods that have historically been favorable periods for beef consumption. The high price of beef is always a risk for damage to demand and the continuing interest of the administration to lower beef prices is a constant threat. Beef must suffer a loss of marketshare, not because of price, but simply because we are producing less beef. With the grind dominating beef sales, imports will continue to rise and those lean cuts will be blended with excess fat from the beef plants.
USDA Prime cuts are carving out a larger slice of the grocery offerings. Many retailers are struggling to market these cuts and often feature discounts to encourage consumption. This is a benefit for consumers who can find bargains on premium cuts. Heavy carcasses also are changing the processing specifications for some cuts. Many of the rib cuts are now cutting off the lip to make the ribeye steaks smaller.
The Cutout. Box prices reflected a widening of the choice/select spread. Retailers will ready for more interest in the middle meats for summer cookouts and Father’s day. Slaughter volumes will continue to be dictated by processing margins.
Replacement markets
Spring rains enable pasture conditions to accommodate summer grazing programs and sustain year round breeding. Rains across many of the dry and burned areas are reviving forage. Replacement markets will begin to be driven my grazing demand while at the same time influenced by a new pessimism that is creeping into the market. The realignment has done little to improve feeding margins that will eventually close some feeding facilities as the processing plants have declined.
Many cattle moved early off winter grain fields in April as reported in the monthly COF report. Movementa into feedyards slowed in May and with recent rains may also slow in June. Placement of cattle on feed this summer will largely be at the mercy of Mother Nature. Placements of cattle on feed from beef breeds continues to show heavier placement weights tracking the same pattern for finished cattle.
Many placement reports fail to separate beef breeds from beef on dairy breeds in reporting placement numbers. The popularity of the beef on dairy cattle is beginning to comprise a larger percent of feedyard occupancy especially in Kansas and Texas. Beef on dairy crosses are placed at lighter weights than beef bred yearlings. USDA has failed to separate placements by breed that has distorted the ability of the industry to judge the numbers of beef heifers held back from feedyard placement for breeding.
The Drought Monitor is a map showing regions of the country under stress for lack of normal rainfall. The map is compiled over a week and updated every Thursday with data collected through Tuesday of that week.
Compared to last week: Feeder steers steady to 5.00 higher, instance to 10.00 higher on heavier weights. Feeder heifers 2.00-8.00 higher. After a higher opening, cattle futures ran into a wall and closed lower. Demand was moderate to good with fairly active trade. Steer calves 10.00-20.00 lower. Heifer calves 2.00-8.00 lower. Demand moderate for calves. Demand limited for un-weaned or short weaned calves as
temps are locked in on the 90’s all week with heat indexes of 100+ expected. On a good note, good rains fell across some of the most extreme drought areas of the state over the weekend. Quality average, end attractive with several nice loads of feeder cattle. Supply included: 100% Feeder Cattle (50% Steers, 47% Heifers, 2% Bulls). Feeder cattle supply over 600 lbs was 71%
Compared to last week: Steer calves 5.00-15.00 higher. Heifer calves steady to 5.00 higher. Demand good. Most of the trading area received a good rain over the past week, which helped create a very aggressive market for steer calves. Supply included some fescue haired cattle, but not nearly the volume seen a week ago. Cattle in thin fleshed condition sold very well, regardless of whether they were steers or heifers.
Supply included: 100% Feeder Cattle (42% Steers, 52% Heifers, 6% Bulls). Feeder cattle supply over 600 lbs was 27%.
Feeder Cattle Cash Index. The index is tracking the moves in cash prices.
Video and Internet Replacement Cattle Auctions. The movement from traditional private treaty sales to Internet auctions has been slow but steady. Producers have chosen this option as the primary marketing tool for most of the cattle offered in the replacement markets. The market that was once dominated by one firm has seen new competition from multiple trade platforms.
National Weekly Feeder Summary released on Friday of each week tracks the national prices by region for last week.
Grain Futures. Corn prices fell this past week but the basis held strong. Some believe the basis will adjust downward with the decline in oil prices but grain basis levels have moved higher driven by increasing transportation costs. The competition for the last mile trucks has increased from demand for gravel for the nation’s many data centers. Corn basis levels in Guymon, Oklahoma are at +$1.10 — basis the July contract.
DATA DRIVEN
Many operations in various segments of beef production are operating with one hand tied behind their back. The handicapping is of their own doing. This summer will witness three of the largest IPOs ever offered to the public and investors are standing in line to participate. The craze is over AI and many ag operators are unfamiliar with the new tools available to all of us. You don’t have to be a geek, you don’t have to be able to code or even understand databases. The simple requirement is a desire to have more and better information to make not necessarily the right decision but at least an informed decisions.
The starting point is gathering the data and then sharing with conditions that protect privileged and proprietary information. AI programs can be easily and inexpensively created to sync the data with member feedyards daily, weekly, or monthly. The logical host would be the associations representing the operations, but the task could also be accomplished in a co-op setting. An example of a starter program would be show lists. Currently this is compiled by various services but because the sampling is using different sources, it is often the numbers contradict between services. Some include committed or formula cattle and some don’t. Show lists could preview not only this week but moving out for several weeks in front.
Bovine Respiratory Disease (BRD) is the scourge of the industry killing hundreds of thousands of cattle annually. Mass medications of vulnerable populations of weaner calves were effective 50 years ago. Unfortunately, the pathogens developed resistance to most treatments. New initiatives done by disparate parties are largely inadequate signaling a need for more coordination of data among those dealing with animal health issues. BRD is not the only disease that would benefit from shared data for treatment and improved morbidity.
The list of benefits available by sharing of data would be endless. Private or association groups could pilot new applications and expand, at will, to all participants. Ignoring these new opportunities is a mistake, but would not be a surprise. Already larger operations are deploying AI tools to leverage data collection beyond publicly available sources. Many new paths will be opened as beef producers explore the world of AI for improved efficiency.
MANDATORY PRICE REPORTING
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EXPLANATIONS OF BREAKEVEN/CLOSE OUT TABLES
Regional differences in grain and cattle basises create a difficulty in modeling a national composite for current close outs or a proforma forward look at a breakeven. Readers should consider your own area for adjustments to these models. Most calculations are basis relevant prices in Guymon, Oklahoma.
CURRENT BREAKEVEN PROJECTION
The Cattle Report introduces the FEEDER METER. The report estimates profit or loss for currently purchased feeder steers and projects a result 180 days out. The chart is interactive and updated every 15 minutes in real time based on changes in futures markets in grain and cattle. Corn basis information is based on current trade prices adjusted every two weeks. Feeder prices are based on the USDA index price for 800# steers and fed cattle sales are $2 cwt. premium the appropriate futures contract.
CURRENT CLOSE OUT
The Cattle Report estimates current profit or loss on cattle placed on feed 180 days ago. This report generated from industry averages attempts to simulate a typical close out based on the feeder index for 800# steers 180 days ago. The close out assumes grain was purchased at market each month. Selling prices and interest rates are based on prevailing benchmark quoted prices. This chart will change weekly.
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