July 24, 2026
MARKETS
This morning cattle owners seem unwilling to add more sales this week at $230 resulting in packers increasing bids to $231 where a few traded before the COF report. Yesterday a few more cattle traded at $230 and a few $230 bids were passed. This week’s sales have been mainly $230 with a few up to $232 and mostly $365 dressed. Live prices were mainly $8 lower and dressed $10-13 lower. Kansas is selling more cattle in a negotiated base price but on a earn out grid. Those cattle sold earlier this week with a negotiated base price of $233 on a grid.
The gap between cash and futures has narrowed and mainly due to sharp declines in cash prices that have now suffered a $30 retreat. Cattle owners are looking for stability and support following this large fall.
Triple digit temperatures is a plague for all beef production. With increasing numbers of feedlot populations holding black hided animals, cattle performance suffers the heat and humidity. With a large positive basis, conditions are bringing increases to owners inclination to sell.
July 1 Cattle Inventory
All cattle and calves in the United States on July 1, 2026 totaled 94.2 million head, slightly above the 94.0 million head on July 1, 2025.
All cows and heifers that have calved totaled 38.1 million head, unchanged from the 38.1 million head on July 1, 2025.
Beef cows, at 28.5 million head, are down 1 percent from a year ago. Milk cows, at 9.65 million head, are up 2 percent from previous year.
All heifers 500 pounds and over on July 1, 2026 totaled 14.7 million head, 1 percent above the 14.6 million head on July 1, 2025. Beef replacement heifers, at 3.80 million head, are up 3 percent from a year ago. Milk replacement heifers, at 3.60 million head, are up 3 percent from previous year. Other heifers, at 7.30 million head, are 1 percent below a year earlier.
Steers 500 pounds and over on July 1, 2026 totaled 13.9 million head, up 1 percent from July 1, 2025.
Bulls 500 pounds and over on July 1, 2026 totaled 1.90 million head, unchanged from previous year.
Calves under 500 pounds on July 1, 2026 totaled 25.6 million head, unchanged from a year earlier.
FEEDLOT
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for all feedlots totaled 13.2 million head on July 1, 2026, up 2 percent from previous year. Cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head accounted for 86.1 percent of the total cattle on feed on July 1, 2026, up 1 percent from previous year. The total of calves under 500 pounds and other heifers and steers over 500 pounds (outside of feedlots), at 33.6 million head, is down 1 percent from the 33.8 million head on July 1, 2025.
Calf Crop Down 2 Percent
The 2026 calf crop in the United States is expected to be 32.5 million head, down 2 percent from last year. Calves born during the first half of 2026 are estimated at 23.9 million head, down 2 percent from the first half of 2025. An additional 8.60 million calves are expected to be born during the second half of 2026.
July 1, 2026 CATTLE ON FEED
On Feed July 1…………..102.2%
Placed during June ……97.1%
Marketed during June 97.3%
This past week’s slaughter was an estimated 525,000 head — 4,000 under the previous week. The slaughter volume was 42,000 under last year. Box prices fell below 2025 levels and lost $12 on the choice boxes last week. With each week, packers improve their position as box prices fall less than cash prices for fed cattle. The status for fed supplies will remain tight, but many sellers are demoralized and futures have provided ammunition to the negative mind set of sellers.
Benchmarking. On Tuesday of each week, USDA releases a weighted average price report for all cattle sold the previous week. The report summarizes the distributed price levels for each category of sale such as Negotiated/Formula/Forward Contracts. Beef producers are able to measure the marketing price for their cattle compared to the national averages.
The Comprehensive Fed Cattle Weekly Report offers the most current information on the current status of fed cattle being harvested. The report is published each Tuesday and includes the previous week’s change in carcass weights and quality grading. The latest report shows carcass weights at 944#, 7# lower than the prior week, and 30# heavier than last year. The combined steer and heifer weights can easily be influenced when the proportion of steers to heifers in the weekly slaughter changes. Quality grade was down .6% from the previous week at 87.1%. The quality grade has begun a slow decline but with out weights at record highs, grading will remain high historically.
The Weekly Steer and Heifer Grading Report reflects regional supplies of choice and prime cattle and often is determinative of regional differences in live prices. The report also indicates the current status of fed cattle offerings in each area.
Forward Cattle Contracts: Forward contracts are always a portion of the inventories the processors maintain for slaughter. Offered basis levels will move up and down as processors want to add to forward contracts or not. The driver in forward purchases of cattle will always be forward sales of beef. Packers will always be willing to take a price risk off the producer’s plate in return for an extra margin. The movement of futures prices, either up or down, will relate to the number of forward contracts.
Formula and Negotiated Grids. The Price and Distribution Report delineates the various selling methods and net results.
The Cattle Contracts Report details the percent of contracts by volume of cattle and by number of contracts for selling cattle. Formula selling that was once the largest marketing method and still is, but is losing ground to negotiated grids where the premiums and discounts are set but the base price is negotiated.
Beef demand will now focus on summer consumption and price issues. The heat in summer is never good for beef consumption. High price of beef is always a risk for damage to demand and the continuing interest of the administration to lower beef prices is a constant threat. With the grind dominating beef sales, imports will continue to rise and those lean cuts will be blended with excess fat from the beef plants.
USDA Prime cuts are carving out a larger slice of the grocery offerings. Many retailers are struggling to market these cuts and often feature discounts to encourage consumption. This is a benefit for consumers who can find bargains on premium cuts. Heavy carcasses also are changing the processing specifications for some cuts. Many of the rib cuts are now cutting off the lip to make the ribeye steaks smaller.
The Cutout. The box prices were lower. The beef complex is undergoing some complex pricing changes as imports begin to weigh on the grind prices and hamburger meat works lower. Box prices have now declined under prior year. Slaughter volumes will continue to be dictated by processing margins.
Replacement markets
The reaction to three weeks of hard hits to cash prices for fed cattle began to affect the yearling cattle with drops of $20 cwt. common and up to $40 reported in some areas. Internet and video auctions reported large volumes of offering lots that were passed out. P.O.ing is becoming a popular choice among sellers who hope the market will rebound. Those cattle will likely resurface to be offered again for sale and if the general negative pricing climate continues, the price could continue to decline. The record breaking prices of three weeks ago are still fresh in the mind of sellers.
The mid summer cattle inventory the end of this week is expected to reflect the rebuilding of the national herd that has been years in the making. The placement of beef on dairy heifers in feedlots has camaflauged heifer retention for breeding because USDA doesn’t separate dairy crosses in placement information.
The Drought Monitor is a map showing regions of the country under stress for lack of normal rainfall. The map is compiled over a week and updated every Thursday with data collected through Tuesday of that week.
Compared to last week: Feeder steers and heifers 15.00-25.00 lower. Steer and heifer calves 20.00-30.00 lower with spots up to 40.00 lower. Demand moderate. Quality plain to average, weaned cattle coming off grass was in the buyer’s favor today. Hot and dry conditions continue to reduce receipts, with triple-digit temperatures expected over the next 10 days. CME futures are trading sharply higher today but did little
to help the cash market. Supply included: 100% Feeder Cattle (55% Steers, 40% Heifers, 5% Bulls). Feeder cattle supply over 600 lbs was 62%
Compared to last week: Steer and heifer calves 15.00-25.00 lower. Quality average. Demand moderate. The dog days of summer are here and producers are more focused on baling hay rather than buying cattle. CME August feeder cattle were lower today after good gains on Monday. Today’s supply included 51% unweaned cattle. Supply included: 100% Feeder Cattle (42% Steers, 46% Heifers, 12% Bulls). Feeder cattle supply over 600 lbs was 25%
Feeder Cattle Cash Index. The index is tracking the moves in cash prices.
Video and Internet Replacement Cattle Auctions. The movement from traditional private treaty sales to Internet auctions has been slow but steady. Producers have chosen this option as the primary marketing tool for most of the cattle offered in the replacement markets. The market that was once dominated by one firm has seen new competition from multiple trade platforms.
National Weekly Feeder Summary released on Friday of each week tracks the national prices by region for last week.
Grain Futures. Corn prices moved higher in response to war news. Corn has developed a trading range between $4 and $4.50/bushel for September with December nearing the $5 mark. USDA pegged corn acres at 95 million acres. Corn basis levels in Guymon, Oklahoma are at +$1.10 — basis the September contract.
END OF A BULL MARKET
The bull market of the past three years has not been without pauses or interruptions. Many of those faltering periods caused analyst to forecast the “top was in” and each pause was followed by renewed vigor and a new high. Somehow, this time seems different and the obstacles to a revival seem more formidable. The pessimism is not coming from an increased supply of beef, but from the many headwinds found in the marketplace.
The administration is determined to lower beef prices prior to the mid term election coming in November. Tariffs are dropped on beef imports, and the gates are open and flowing. Mexico, unable to cross live cattle, is shipping cattle fattened in Mexico to the U.S. in carcasses and boxes. Following the attention in the media highlighting high beef prices, there is developing some consumer resistance, and beef counters are frequently featuring discounted portions of beef cuts before it spoils. The managed futures accounts that have supported futures prices are exiting their long positions and the declining futures are demoralizing the marketplace.
The filtering down of all cattle prices lags in the replacement market because of short supplies and competition, but signs are developing that large pricing adjustments are on the horizon. This past week witnessed online auctions with sellers Passing Out (PO) lower bids and those offerings will resurface to possibly face even lower prices. The cumulative effect of backed up cattle will always catch up as the beef pipeline fills.
The financial damage will be material and long-lasting. Equities built over the past few years will be threatened and often depleted. Sharp declines in prices are common occasions for exposing weaknesses in the industry’s capital structure. Lenders will be attentive to margin calls and producers reluctant to contribute. Losses moving forward will take a toll on all operations and even fully hedged operators will find the favorable basis levels currently available disappear as the markets find a sustainable price level.
The American consumer loves beef and current nutritional advice support beef consumption. News of lower prices will bring a revival of consumer demand and while beef may not fall to previous pricing levels, it will return to an affordable level and find a level allowing all segments of the industry to return an acceptable margin.
MANDATORY PRICE REPORTING
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NOTE TO READERS
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EXPLANATIONS OF BREAKEVEN/CLOSE OUT TABLES
Regional differences in grain and cattle basises create a difficulty in modeling a national composite for current close outs or a proforma forward look at a breakeven. Readers should consider your own area for adjustments to these models. Most calculations are basis relevant prices in Guymon, Oklahoma.
CURRENT BREAKEVEN PROJECTION
The Cattle Report introduces the FEEDER METER. The report estimates profit or loss for currently purchased feeder steers and projects a result 180 days out. The chart is interactive and updated every 15 minutes in real time based on changes in futures markets in grain and cattle. Corn basis information is based on current trade prices adjusted every two weeks. Feeder prices are based on the USDA index price for 800# steers and fed cattle sales are $2 cwt. premium the appropriate futures contract.
CURRENT CLOSE OUT
The Cattle Report estimates current profit or loss on cattle placed on feed 180 days ago. This report generated from industry averages attempts to simulate a typical close out based on the feeder index for 800# steers 180 days ago. The close out assumes grain was purchased at market each month. Selling prices and interest rates are based on prevailing benchmark quoted prices. This chart will change weekly.
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