June 27, 2026
MARKETS
The difficulty of reporting prices on weeks with one trade day is often the trading is pushed late into the day and not reported until early Monday — another case for changing the requirements for reporting. A few early week spotted sales in the north at $260 live and $408 dressed were reported followed by the bulk of trading Friday in the north for $260 live and $410 dressed. Late trades in the south were at $258 live. The weekly price trends were mainly steady in the north and $2 softer in the south. Volumes were light but slaughter also will be pared back in the coming week.
Heat can influence the markets and those affected are both human and animal. Both Europe, where daily highs are breaking all time records, and the United States where heat is rising in the plains are being experienced by both cattle and people. Heat and humidity impact cattle performance and heat influences what people chose to eat. The 4th falls on a weekend but next week will be a shortened slaughter week with most plants closed on Friday.
This past week’s slaughter was 537,000 head — 11,000 over last week. The slaughter volume was 24,000 under last year. The processors faced stiff headwinds at week’s end as box prices fell sharply. This disappointment will play out next week when coolers are cleaned up and supplies offered by the processors will be restricted because of the holiday next Friday. The backdrop for fed supplies will remain tight and cattle owners will hold some leverage but the sustainability for processors to lose $300/head is not present.
Cattle futures still trade in small ticks of price that were well established decades ago. The ticks are .025 per hundred weight. When these ticks were established the cash prices traded in quarter of a cents and sometimes fifty cents. Today it is not uncommon for bids to be raised or lowered in $2 increments. Cattle futures should move to .10 ticks at least.
Benchmarking. On Tuesday of each week, USDA releases a weighted average price report for all cattle sold the previous week. The report summarizes the distributed price levels for each category of sale such as Negotiated/Formula/Forward Contracts. Beef producers are able to measure the marketing price for their cattle compared to the national averages.
The Comprehensive Fed Cattle Weekly Report offers the most current information on the current status of fed cattle being harvested. The report is published each Tuesday and includes the previous week’s change in carcass weights and quality grading. The latest report shows carcass weights at 946#, 1# lower than the prior week, and 37# heavier than last year. The combined steer and heifer weights can easily be influenced when the proportion of steers to heifers in the weekly slaughter changes. Quality grade was down .9% from the previous week at 87.3%. The quality grade should begin a slow decline lasting into summer, but with out weights at record highs, grading will remain high historically.
The Weekly Steer and Heifer Grading Report reflects regional supplies of choice and prime cattle and often is determinative of regional differences in live prices. The report also indicates the current status of fed cattle offerings in each area.
Forward Cattle Contracts: Forward contracts are always a portion of the inventories the processors maintain for slaughter. Offered basis levels will move up and down as processors want to add to forward contracts or not. The driver in forward purchases of cattle will always be forward sales of beef. Packers will always be willing to take a price risk off the producer’s plate in return for an extra margin. The movement of futures prices, either up or down, will relate to the number of forward contracts.
Formula and Negotiated Grids. The Price and Distribution Report delineates the various selling methods and net results.
The Cattle Contracts Report details the percent of contracts by volume of cattle and by number of contracts for selling cattle. Formula selling that was once the largest marketing method and still is, but is losing ground to negotiated grids where the premiums and discounts are set but the base price is negotiated.
Beef demand will now move into summer periods that have historically been favorable periods for beef consumption. The high price of beef is always a risk for damage to demand and the continuing interest of the administration to lower beef prices is a constant threat. Beef must suffer a loss of marketshare, not because of price, but simply because we are producing less beef. With the grind dominating beef sales, imports will continue to rise and those lean cuts will be blended with excess fat from the beef plants.
USDA Prime cuts are carving out a larger slice of the grocery offerings. Many retailers are struggling to market these cuts and often feature discounts to encourage consumption. This is a benefit for consumers who can find bargains on premium cuts. Heavy carcasses also are changing the processing specifications for some cuts. Many of the rib cuts are now cutting off the lip to make the ribeye steaks smaller.
The Cutout. Box prices fell at week’s end. Retailers are disappointed in the middle meats. Slaughter volumes will continue to be dictated by processing margins.
Replacement markets
Spring rains and in some cases flooding has entered the picture. The dry areas across the south have been refreshed with large rains that sometimes bring too much at once. Rains across many of the dry and burned areas are reviving forage. Replacement markets will begin to be driven by grazing demand while at the same time influenced by a new pessimism that is creeping into the market. The realignment has done little to improve feeding margins that will eventually close some feeding facilities as the processing plant capacities have declined.
Many placement reports fail to separate beef breeds from beef on dairy breeds in reporting placement numbers. The popularity of the beef on dairy cattle is beginning to comprise a larger percent of feedyard occupancy especially in Kansas and Texas. Beef on dairy crosses are placed at lighter weights than beef bred yearlings. USDA has failed to separate placements by breed that has distorted the ability of the industry to judge the numbers of beef heifers held back from feedyard placement for breeding.
The Drought Monitor is a map showing regions of the country under stress for lack of normal rainfall. The map is compiled over a week and updated every Thursday with data collected through Tuesday of that week.
Compared to last week: Feeder steers over 800 lbs 5.00-15.00 higher; under 800 lbs 1.00-3.00 higher. Feeder heifers 5.00-15.00 higher. calves 8.00-15.00 higher. Heifer calves 10.00-20.00 higher. Demand for feeder cattle remains strong following last week’s somewhat favorable Cattle on Feed report. Futures markets responded accordingly, with prices trading higher. Slaughter cattle prices have also
strengthened. Overall quality ranged from average to attractive, with most cattle exhibiting thin to medium flesh conditions. Widespread overnight rainfall provided beneficial moisture, though several areas of the state experienced high winds along with the storms. Demand also very good for calves. Rains have created a new hope for grass pastures. Supply included: 100% Feeder Cattle (55% Steers, 40% Heifers, 4% Bulls, 1% Beef/Dairy Steers, 0% Beef/Dairy Heifers). Feeder cattle supply over 600 lbs was 68%
Compared to last week: Steer calves 5.00-15.00 higher with the light 5 weights up to 30.00 higher. Heifer calves 15.00-25.00 higher. Demand very good. Today’s supply included 42% unweaned cattle. These cattle were not discounted nearly as heavily today as they have been over the past several weeks. Most of Oklahoma received beneficial rainfall over the past week. Supply included: 100% Feeder Cattle (52% Steers, 41% Heifers, 7% Bulls). Feeder cattle supply over 600 lbs was 22%
Feeder Cattle Cash Index. The index is tracking the moves in cash prices.
Video and Internet Replacement Cattle Auctions. The movement from traditional private treaty sales to Internet auctions has been slow but steady. Producers have chosen this option as the primary marketing tool for most of the cattle offered in the replacement markets. The market that was once dominated by one firm has seen new competition from multiple trade platforms.
National Weekly Feeder Summary released on Friday of each week tracks the national prices by region for last week.
Grain Futures. Corn prices moved higher as oil jumped higher over uncertainty on the war. The increase in the corn basis is mostly driven by truck traffic that is being switched to gravel for the new data centers making trucks available for grain hauling in short supply. Corn basis levels in Guymon, Oklahoma are at +$1.10 — basis the July contract.
THE REPLACEMENT CONUNDRUM
The most common viewpoint of future prices for beef and cattle is the notion that the top is in and under various conditions, prices will be moving lower. It is not unusual for markets to anticipate the future long before the fundamentals turn downward. The daily, weekly, and monthly data shows no signs of a downturn. The fact of the discounted price of deferred futures contracts is no guarantee that the top is in.
The normal and rational reaction to the prediction of lower prices in the future is to witness a decline in the replacement prices. Buyers of replacement cattle should all recognize the discount built into the futures prices and adjust current buying levels to meet future expectations. Unfortunately for buyers there is no evidence they are heeding the reality of price estimates for the future.
Current replacement costs are strong. Cattle auctions across the country are reporting record prices and the cash settlement for feeder futures is ratcheting higher. A group of 350# steers recently auctioned at $725 cwt. or $2500/head. The timetable to finish for those calves will push them into a marketing period in the early months of 2028 and a forecast of the breakeven of near $300 or $40 cwt. higher than today’s cash price.
One can always select some of the highest prices reported for replacement cattle and make assumptions based on those numbers. The reality is that many of the prices reported in the everyday trading markets for replacement cattle carry additional risk that cattle owners don’t always anticipate. All producers know that the best laid predictions for production costs are vulnerable to failing to deliver.
MANDATORY PRICE REPORTING
mpr.lpgmn@usda.gov
This email address is used for comments for Livestock Mandatory Price Reporting (LMPR). You can also leave a voicemail at 202-720-1990 if needed.
CATTLE REPORT LIBRARY
Change is a necessity for any sustainable industry and sometimes necessary changes encounter obstacles in the form of stalwarts who refuse change. The Cattle Report has created a library page of opinions pieces published on these pages advocating fundamental and structure changes for the industry.
NOTE TO READERS
Sections of the newsletter are designed with hyperlinks to the appropriate source pages. The hyperlinks are in light blue within the report.
EXPLANATIONS OF BREAKEVEN/CLOSE OUT TABLES
Regional differences in grain and cattle basises create a difficulty in modeling a national composite for current close outs or a proforma forward look at a breakeven. Readers should consider your own area for adjustments to these models. Most calculations are basis relevant prices in Guymon, Oklahoma.
CURRENT BREAKEVEN PROJECTION
The Cattle Report introduces the FEEDER METER. The report estimates profit or loss for currently purchased feeder steers and projects a result 180 days out. The chart is interactive and updated every 15 minutes in real time based on changes in futures markets in grain and cattle. Corn basis information is based on current trade prices adjusted every two weeks. Feeder prices are based on the USDA index price for 800# steers and fed cattle sales are $2 cwt. premium the appropriate futures contract.
CURRENT CLOSE OUT
The Cattle Report estimates current profit or loss on cattle placed on feed 180 days ago. This report generated from industry averages attempts to simulate a typical close out based on the feeder index for 800# steers 180 days ago. The close out assumes grain was purchased at market each month. Selling prices and interest rates are based on prevailing benchmark quoted prices. This chart will change weekly.
Contact Us
The CATTLE REPORT will strive to answer all emails. Our editorial views are not always popular and sometime create controversy and are sometimes flat out wrong.