June 20, 2026
MARKETS
Friday was once again trade day. Bids of $254 earlier this week were replaced with bids moving in $2 increments during the day ending at $260. Live sales were at $258 mid afternoon and $260 late. More completed sales information will be available Monday morning.
USDA reported On feed numbers for June 1 at 102.1% vs trade estimates of 102.3%; Placed: 90.3% vs 92.8% estimated; and Marketed: 88.2% vs estimated 89%. Cattle on feed reports are losing their attention in the trade. In the past they were an important source of data. Markets and futures paid close attention. In today’s world they are regarded as less dependable because of the manner in which the data is gathered and its accuracy. The placement number, gathered through mail out surveys and phone calls, is thought by many to be unreliable.
This past week’s slaughter was 526,000 head — 2,000 over last week. The slaughter volume was 32,000 under last year. The processors are hoping to revive beef demand by cutting back slaughter volumes and there should be a response in the coming week for box prices. The choice cutout is hovering just below $400. Beef imports are rising and an attempt to fuel the run up to the 4th of July demand for hamburger. The backdrop for fed supplies will remain tight and cattle owners will hold some leverage as the industry transitions to increasing calf supplies in the coming year. Slaughter weights are trending down as the spread between choice and select widens.
Futures are well below cash markets. Some speculators will attempt to capture the price gap while skeptics believing pricing have only to decline will hold their ground.
Benchmarking. On Tuesday of each week, USDA releases a weighted average price report for all cattle sold the previous week. The report summarizes the distributed price levels for each category of sale such as Negotiated/Formula/Forward Contracts. Beef producers are able to measure the marketing price for their cattle compared to the national averages.
The Comprehensive Fed Cattle Weekly Report offers the most current information on the current status of fed cattle being harvested. The report is published each Tuesday and includes the previous week’s change in carcass weights and quality grading. The latest report shows carcass weights at 947#, 1# lower than the prior week, and 38# heavier than last year. The combined steer and heifer weights can easily be influenced when the proportion of steers to heifers in the weekly slaughter changes. Quality grade was up .6% from the previous week at 88.2%. The quality grade should begin a slow decline lasting into summer, but with out weights at record highs, grading will remain high historically.
The Weekly Steer and Heifer Grading Report reflects regional supplies of choice and prime cattle and often is determinative of regional differences in live prices. The report also indicates the current status of fed cattle offerings in each area.
Forward Cattle Contracts: Forward contracts are always a portion of the inventories the processors maintain for slaughter. Offered basis levels will move up and down as processors want to add to forward contracts or not. The driver in forward purchases of cattle will always be forward sales of beef. Packers will always be willing to take a price risk off the producer’s plate in return for an extra margin. The movement of futures prices, either up or down, will relate to the number of forward contracts.
Formula and Negotiated Grids. The Price and Distribution Report delineates the various selling methods and net results.
The Cattle Contracts Report details the percent of contracts by volume of cattle and by number of contracts for selling cattle. Formula selling that was once the largest marketing method and still is, but is losing ground to negotiated grids where the premiums and discounts are set but the base price is negotiated.
Beef demand will now move into summer periods that have historically been favorable periods for beef consumption. The high price of beef is always a risk for damage to demand and the continuing interest of the administration to lower beef prices is a constant threat. Beef must suffer a loss of marketshare, not because of price, but simply because we are producing less beef. With the grind dominating beef sales, imports will continue to rise and those lean cuts will be blended with excess fat from the beef plants.
USDA Prime cuts are carving out a larger slice of the grocery offerings. Many retailers are struggling to market these cuts and often feature discounts to encourage consumption. This is a benefit for consumers who can find bargains on premium cuts. Heavy carcasses also are changing the processing specifications for some cuts. Many of the rib cuts are now cutting off the lip to make the ribeye steaks smaller.
The Cutout. Box prices were mixed to close the week. Retailers are seeing some improvement in middle meats for summer cookouts and Father’s day. Slaughter volumes will continue to be dictated by processing margins.
Replacement markets
Spring rains and in some cases flooding has entered the picture. The dry areas across the south have been refreshed with large rains that sometimes bring too much at once. Rains across many of the dry and burned areas are reviving forage. Replacement markets will begin to be driven my grazing demand while at the same time influenced by a new pessimism that is creeping into the market. The realignment has done little to improve feeding margins that will eventually close some feeding facilities as the processing plant capacities have declined.
Many cattle moved early off winter grain fields in April as reported in the monthly COF report. Movementa into feedyards slowed in May and with recent rains may also slow in June. Placement of cattle on feed this summer will largely be at the mercy of Mother Nature. Placements of cattle on feed from beef breeds continues to show heavier placement weights tracking the same pattern for finished cattle.
Many placement reports fail to separate beef breeds from beef on dairy breeds in reporting placement numbers. The popularity of the beef on dairy cattle is beginning to comprise a larger percent of feedyard occupancy especially in Kansas and Texas. Beef on dairy crosses are placed at lighter weights than beef bred yearlings. USDA has failed to separate placements by breed that has distorted the ability of the industry to judge the numbers of beef heifers held back from feedyard placement for breeding.
The Drought Monitor is a map showing regions of the country under stress for lack of normal rainfall. The map is compiled over a week and updated every Thursday with data collected through Tuesday of that week.
Compared to last week: Feeder steers 2.00-10.00 higher, 6 weights to 20.00 higher. Feeder heifers steady to 5.00 higher. Demand good for feeder cattle. Cattle futures has started the week strong, especially on feeder cattle, following a down day last Friday. Weaned steer and heifer calves 20.00 higher. Un-weaned calves very uneven and depended on quality. Calf demand moderate to good. Quality mostly average
to attractive. Still seeing some nice loads of feeder cattle. Rains fell in many areas of the state over the weekend and temperatures have cooled down. Temperatures will be up and down with more chances of rain expected for the week. Supply included: 100% Feeder Cattle (59% Steers, 38% Heifers, 3% Bulls). Feeder cattle supply over 600 lbs was 71%
Compared to last week: Steer calves 10.00-20.00 higher. Heifer calves 5.00-15.00 higher. Demand good. CME feeder cattle futures up over 9.00 in the past two days. Supply included: 100% Feeder Cattle (36% Steers, 50% Heifers, 14% Bulls). Feeder cattle supply over 600 lbs was 26%
Feeder Cattle Cash Index. The index is tracking the moves in cash prices.
Video and Internet Replacement Cattle Auctions. The movement from traditional private treaty sales to Internet auctions has been slow but steady. Producers have chosen this option as the primary marketing tool for most of the cattle offered in the replacement markets. The market that was once dominated by one firm has seen new competition from multiple trade platforms.
National Weekly Feeder Summary released on Friday of each week tracks the national prices by region for last week.
Grain Futures. Corn prices moved higher. The increase in the corn basis is mostly driven by truck traffic that is being switched to gravel for the new data centers making trucks available for grain hauling in short supply. Corn basis levels in Guymon, Oklahoma are at +$1.10 — basis the July contract.
THE MEXICAN BEEF TRADE
The border closure has been a direct hit on replacement supplies to U.S. beef producers. Southwestern feedyards and grazing operations depended on hearty Mexican cattle for grazing and finishing. The natural evolution caused by the border closure has been a restructuring of the domestic beef producing business in Mexico. The Mexican calf crop doesn’t disappear; it is rechanneled to alternative production paths at much lower prices from U.S. counterparts.
Calves that previously were exported crossing the border in Texas, New Mexico and Arizona found new homes in Mexico in grazing and feeding operations all across the Mexican states of Chihuahua and Sonora. Beef processing companies in Mexico like SuKarne welcomed this change and geared up their own feeding and slaughtering operations. They are joined by smaller firms wanting to take advantage of the newfound supply of cattle.
The Mexican base beef eating population has not been able to absorb the newly added supply of beef. This has created a need for expanded export business and not surprisingly the U.S. is a target for much of this beef. Beef imports from Mexico have increased from 600 million pounds in 2024 to 700 million pounds in 2025 to an estimated 800 million pounds this year. Much of the pipeline of finished calves unable to cross the border for U.S. buyers are yet to finish and will be converted to beef and crossed to the United States duty free.
Major changes to infrastructure in Mexico also means large changes to the regulatory and trade practices in both countries. Mexican grading of beef products is different but similar to USDA grading. Mexican processors are actively establishing an equivalency so they can participate in premiums for higher quality beef. U.S. States along the border with large Hispanic populations like California, Arizona, and Texas have Hispanic populations, many of whom buy meat at Carnicerias, or Mexican meat markets in this country. Rechanneling beef from Mexico will be a dynamic process and will prove to be a threat to U.S. beef production even though finishing cattle in Mexico on grain will be costly because corn is $2-3 bushel higher in Mexico than in the U.S..
MANDATORY PRICE REPORTING
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EXPLANATIONS OF BREAKEVEN/CLOSE OUT TABLES
Regional differences in grain and cattle basises create a difficulty in modeling a national composite for current close outs or a proforma forward look at a breakeven. Readers should consider your own area for adjustments to these models. Most calculations are basis relevant prices in Guymon, Oklahoma.
CURRENT BREAKEVEN PROJECTION
The Cattle Report introduces the FEEDER METER. The report estimates profit or loss for currently purchased feeder steers and projects a result 180 days out. The chart is interactive and updated every 15 minutes in real time based on changes in futures markets in grain and cattle. Corn basis information is based on current trade prices adjusted every two weeks. Feeder prices are based on the USDA index price for 800# steers and fed cattle sales are $2 cwt. premium the appropriate futures contract.
CURRENT CLOSE OUT
The Cattle Report estimates current profit or loss on cattle placed on feed 180 days ago. This report generated from industry averages attempts to simulate a typical close out based on the feeder index for 800# steers 180 days ago. The close out assumes grain was purchased at market each month. Selling prices and interest rates are based on prevailing benchmark quoted prices. This chart will change weekly.
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