July 11, 2026
MARKETS
Falling futures and declining box prices took a toll on the cash markets for fed cattle. Live sales were reported in all areas at $248 — accepted in all regions in varying degrees of resistance and at various times Thursday and Friday. The prices were $7 lower than the previous week. Dressed prices of $393 were $10 lower. Prices were the same for all regions.
Futures prices for the spot month of August have now posted 9 declines in a row from $347 the end of June to $233 this past Friday. The start point on June 26th was well under the $260 cash prices. Futures have maintained the steep discount to current cash as the cash prices have fallen $12. Replacement prices have stubbornly held their ground but few expect a continuation in light of the dismal outlook. The feeder contracts are also selling well below the feeder cattle index.
This past week’s slaughter was an estimated 529,000 head — 71,000 over last week because of the holiday. The slaughter volume was 43,000 under last year. The sole bright spot was revived interest in boxes by retailers on Friday, but box prices fell below 2025 levels for the first time. The processors faced stiff headwinds for the entire month of June and so far this month but they improved their input cost by over $100, head this past week. The status for fed supplies will remain tight, but some hedged sellers will want to capitalize on the large positive basis levels offered by the current cash markets.
Benchmarking. On Tuesday of each week, USDA releases a weighted average price report for all cattle sold the previous week. The report summarizes the distributed price levels for each category of sale such as Negotiated/Formula/Forward Contracts. Beef producers are able to measure the marketing price for their cattle compared to the national averages.
The Comprehensive Fed Cattle Weekly Report offers the most current information on the current status of fed cattle being harvested. The report is published each Tuesday and includes the previous week’s change in carcass weights and quality grading. The latest report shows carcass weights at 938#, 4# lower than the prior week, and 31# heavier than last year. The combined steer and heifer weights can easily be influenced when the proportion of steers to heifers in the weekly slaughter changes. Quality grade was up .2% from the previous week at 86.6%. The quality grade has begun a slow decline but with out weights at record highs, grading will remain high historically.
The Weekly Steer and Heifer Grading Report reflects regional supplies of choice and prime cattle and often is determinative of regional differences in live prices. The report also indicates the current status of fed cattle offerings in each area.
Forward Cattle Contracts: Forward contracts are always a portion of the inventories the processors maintain for slaughter. Offered basis levels will move up and down as processors want to add to forward contracts or not. The driver in forward purchases of cattle will always be forward sales of beef. Packers will always be willing to take a price risk off the producer’s plate in return for an extra margin. The movement of futures prices, either up or down, will relate to the number of forward contracts.
Formula and Negotiated Grids. The Price and Distribution Report delineates the various selling methods and net results.
The Cattle Contracts Report details the percent of contracts by volume of cattle and by number of contracts for selling cattle. Formula selling that was once the largest marketing method and still is, but is losing ground to negotiated grids where the premiums and discounts are set but the base price is negotiated.
Beef demand will now focus on mid summer consumption and price issues. The high price of beef is always a risk for damage to demand and the continuing interest of the administration to lower beef prices is a constant threat. Beef must suffer a loss of marketshare, not because of price, but simply because we are producing less beef. With the grind dominating beef sales, imports will continue to rise and those lean cuts will be blended with excess fat from the beef plants.
USDA Prime cuts are carving out a larger slice of the grocery offerings. Many retailers are struggling to market these cuts and often feature discounts to encourage consumption. This is a benefit for consumers who can find bargains on premium cuts. Heavy carcasses also are changing the processing specifications for some cuts. Many of the rib cuts are now cutting off the lip to make the ribeye steaks smaller.
The Cutout. Box prices were higher to close the week. Retailers this past week were responding to political pressures to lower beef prices by backing off input prices. Meanwhile imports of beef are rising. Slaughter volumes will continue to be dictated by processing margins.
Replacement markets
The reaction to two weeks of hard hits to cash prices for fed cattle didn’t appear to phase the replacement market. Spring rains and in some cases flooding have entered the picture. The impact is expected next week to be demonstrated in across the board and across the country damage to the replacement market. Dry hot weather combined with falling fed and futures prices will take a toll on the bravest of the buyers in the replacement market. Scorching heat and wind quickly removes recent moisture.
Additional screwworm cases are added with restricted areas surrounding each new case. The new case numbers are probably unreliable because many cases are unreported. Sheep, goats, and cattle have been reported in both Texas and New Mexico. Sterile fly production is ramping up and beef producers will be learning to live with the health problem. Officials are mum about the border reopening.
The Drought Monitor is a map showing regions of the country under stress for lack of normal rainfall. The map is compiled over a week and updated every Thursday with data collected through Tuesday of that week.
Compared to last week: Not enough of anyone class to test trends. High heat and humidity, weekend rains, along with the July 4th holiday limited receipts. A somewhat lower undertone was noted on some feeder cattle however, quality and flesh conditions played a factor. Demand moderate to good as cattle futures opened sharply lower, but by the end of the sale was trading back in the green. Quality plain to
average. Supply included: 100% Feeder Cattle (66% Steers, 28% Heifers, 6% Bulls). Feeder cattle supply over 600 lbs was 54%
Compared to two weeks ago: Steer and heifer calves 10.00-20.00 lower. Quality plain. Demand moderate. Front-end quality cattle were few and far between today. The few drafts of that quality sold at steady money. Even plainer type cattle in thin flesh condition sold very well. The recent heat and humidity have caused buyers to become more selective, as the bulk of today’s supply consisted of unweaned cattle or cattle carrying to much flesh to do well under these conditions. Cattle denoted with the description Value-Added were thin fleshed, unweaned cattle. Supply included: 100% Feeder Cattle (51% Steers, 40% Heifers, 9% Bulls). Feeder cattle supply over 600 lbs was 28%
Feeder Cattle Cash Index. The index is tracking the moves in cash prices.
Video and Internet Replacement Cattle Auctions. The movement from traditional private treaty sales to Internet auctions has been slow but steady. Producers have chosen this option as the primary marketing tool for most of the cattle offered in the replacement markets. The market that was once dominated by one firm has seen new competition from multiple trade platforms.
National Weekly Feeder Summary released on Friday of each week tracks the national prices by region for last week.
Grain Futures. Corn prices closed higher to end the week. Corn has developed a trading range between $4 and $4.50/bushel. USDA pegged corn acres at 95 million acres. Corn basis levels in Guymon, Oklahoma are at +$1.10 — basis the September contract.
POLITICS AND BEEF
Food prices have become a continuing feature item in the media as both political parties gear up for the midterm elections. The poster child for the topic is beef. Year ago comparisons and current prices are displayed in graphs, and consumer testimonies and complaints are common. The damage to the cost of the average grocery basket is always a focus and complaints about bringing down prices are across all political spectrums.
Against this backdrop is the fact beef has come into its own from a health perspective and a consumer preference. Age old studies combining processed meats with fresh meats have been discounted with new studies demonstrating the health harm is from processed meats – not fresh meats. Revised dietary guidelines have established beef to its rightful position as a recommended foundation for any balanced diet.
The obvious and time-tested solution to high prices is free markets. Rebuilding has been underway and results will be demonstrable soon. Government interference is not the solution. Our high prices attract imports and discourage exports, however there are some countries and buyers who are not satisfied with any replacement products and insist on American quality beef and will pay for it.
The temptation of politicians is to scapegoat the culprit for high prices when there is none. President Trump doesn’t want to target the cattle ranchers who, as a group are among his most loyal supporters, so he turns to the four beef processors – large corporations that fit the billing of evil intent. Never mind the fact the processors are reporting losses each quarter of hundreds of millions of dollars. Unfortunately, most of the operators in the beef production space are all suffering lost margins and lower beef prices will take a toll on the industry.
MANDATORY PRICE REPORTING
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CATTLE REPORT LIBRARY
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NOTE TO READERS
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EXPLANATIONS OF BREAKEVEN/CLOSE OUT TABLES
Regional differences in grain and cattle basises create a difficulty in modeling a national composite for current close outs or a proforma forward look at a breakeven. Readers should consider your own area for adjustments to these models. Most calculations are basis relevant prices in Guymon, Oklahoma.
CURRENT BREAKEVEN PROJECTION
The Cattle Report introduces the FEEDER METER. The report estimates profit or loss for currently purchased feeder steers and projects a result 180 days out. The chart is interactive and updated every 15 minutes in real time based on changes in futures markets in grain and cattle. Corn basis information is based on current trade prices adjusted every two weeks. Feeder prices are based on the USDA index price for 800# steers and fed cattle sales are $2 cwt. premium the appropriate futures contract.
CURRENT CLOSE OUT
The Cattle Report estimates current profit or loss on cattle placed on feed 180 days ago. This report generated from industry averages attempts to simulate a typical close out based on the feeder index for 800# steers 180 days ago. The close out assumes grain was purchased at market each month. Selling prices and interest rates are based on prevailing benchmark quoted prices. This chart will change weekly.
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