October 9, 2025
THE MARKETS
Trading in the cash market for fed cattle has been brought to a standstill with futures still moving higher, but box prices seem to have run out of steam. Only a spinkle of cattle sales in Iowa were reported at steady prices. Steady bids currently are insufficient to acquire cattle and asking prices are dollars higher. Show lists are larger in Texas and Nebraska while Kansas is sharply lower. It will be doubtful for cash prices to sell discount to futures in a delivery month.
Most national attention will be on the Middle East where the President has presided over a peace plan now accepted by all the parties.
This past week’s slaughter at 562,000 head was up 7,000 from the previous week and 50,000 under last year. More complete beef production is not available due to the shutdown where aggregate data is missing. Slaughter volumes are expected decline into year end due to limited supplies and plant workovers. Critical to cash cattle prices will be beef demand in the face of high prices.
CATTLE FUTURES
Futures prices continued higher.
Benchmarking. On Tuesday of each week, USDA releases a weighted average price report for all cattle sold the previous week. The report summarizes the distributed price levels for each category of sale such as Negotiated/Formula/Forward Contracts. Beef producers are able to measure the marketing price for their cattle compared to the national averages.
The Comprehensive Fed Cattle Weekly Report offers the most current information on the current status of fed cattle being harvested. The report is published each Tuesday and includes the previous week’s change in carcass weights and quality grading. The latest report shows carcass weights at 939#, 3# under the prior week, and 22# heavier than last year. The combined steer and heifer weights can easily be influenced when the proportion of steers to heifers in the weekly slaughter changes. Quality grade was down .3 from the previous week at 83.3% .
The Weekly Steer and Heifer Grading Report is indicative of regional supplies of choice and prime cattle and often is determinative of regional differences is live price. The report is also reflective of the current status of fed cattle offerings in each area.
Forward Cattle Contracts: Forward contracts will always bear some relationship to the corresponding futures month closest to the delivery month for the cattle. Basis levels will move up and down as processors want to add to forward contracts or not. The driver in forward purchases of cattle will always be forward sales of beef. Packers will always be willing to take a price risk off the producer’s plate in return for an extra margin.
Formula and Negotiated Grids. The Price and Distribution Report delineates the various selling methods and net results.
The Cattle Contracts Report details the percent of contracts by volume of cattle and by number of contracts for selling cattle. Formula selling that was once the largest marketing method and still is, but is losing ground to negotiated grids where the premiums and discounts are set but the base price is negotiated.
Beef demand is coming mostly from the grind that represents almost half of all beef sold. Published reports show hamburger to be not only the most popular item on the meat counter but also the fastest growing. The increases in beef prices force the retail outlets to change marketing schemes and the best option is the grind allowing all consumers to maintain beef in the diet.
The Cutout. Box prices turned mixed following gains this week. End cuts may be a source of improvement in primal prices as the weather cools. Seasonally beef demand should improve moving towards the cooler weather and the holiday season. Retailers also begin to think about positioning for the holidays.
Replacement markets
As September turns to October the fall runs of cattle moves into full swing. This year’s full swing is tempered by reduced numbers of cattle and auction receipts seem to be falling well under last year. Winter grazing prospects are good and many farmers are drilling wheat into well watered soil for a change. Smaller receipts translates into less cattle available for winter grazing. Not all farmers are anxious to graze their own cattle this year and many are soliciting cattle for grazing.
Throughout the industry the feeling that replacement prices have reached a level presenting a imminent danger to operating margins. Many operations are paring back and dropping out. Feedlot occupancy is in decline and some will close before reaching the low point of available replacement supplies. This is the first week when declining futures also were accompanied with declining replacement prices and some prices fell materially.
As summer cattle move off pasture to the feedlots, one change from last year is noteworthy. Cattle are heavier. In weight into the nation’s feedyards are 25# heavier than last year lending support to the improvement in grazing conditions across the plains. Daily gains are trending .25 to .50# over last year with some daily gains reaching over 2#.
The drought monitor continues to favor herd expansion. Chances are good that the slow rebuilding of the nation’s cattle herd is now morphing into full throttle rebuilding and those forecasting recovery several years away will find it happening sooner rather than later.
Oklahoma City. —
Compared to last week: Feeder steers mostly steady. Feeder heifers over 700 lbs steady to 4.00 higher; under 700 lbs 1.00-4.00 lower. Steer calves 10.00-20.00 higher. Heifer calves mostly steady. Demand is good for all classes. Quality average to attractive. Few more yearling type cattle included. Weather remains warm and dry, though a cool front is headed this way this evening and will drop tomorrow’s highs back into the mid 70’s. This will be short-lived as we will be back to 90 by the weekend. It is October and we are back on the weather roller coaster. Much of Oklahoma is in need of some rain to sow wheat. Supply included: 100% Feeder Cattle (51% Steers, 45% Heifers, 3% Bulls). Feeder
cattle supply over 600 lbs was 60%.
Compared to last week: Steer calves 4.00-10.00 lower except 500-600lbs 20.00 higher. Heifer calves unevenly steady. Quality mostly plain. It’s October, and much like the changing weather, cattle prices have become inconsistent as buyers grow more cautious due to calf health concerns. Wheat farmers remain more concerned with the lack of moisture and army worms than with buying calves at this time. Supply
included: 100% Feeder Cattle (39% Steers, 43% Heifers, 18% Bulls). Feeder cattle supply over 600 lbs was 27%
Feeder Cattle Futures. Feeder futures rose as prices find support.
The lack of liquidity in the feeder contract provides a perfect environment for prices to move too far in either direction. Poor liquidity leads to extreme volatility. Overdone directional price movements frequently require corrections and traders sense the vulnerability of the contract that needs to be cash settled but the contract index needs a redo.
Feeder Cattle Cash Index. The index is tracking the moves in cash prices.
Video and Internet Replacement Cattle Auctions. The movement from traditional private treaty sales to Internet auctions has been slow but steady. Producers have chosen this option as the primary marketing tool for most of the cattle offered in the replacement markets. The market that was once dominated by one firm has seen new competition from multiple trade platforms.
National Weekly Feeder Summary released on Friday of each week tracks the national prices by region for last week.
Grain Futures. Corn prices moved sideways and are remaining in a narrow trading range. USDA crop reports will be missing should the government shut down continue. Open weather is allowing harvest to move forward and the crop is large. Elevators are lowering the basis as harvest progresses in the plains. Corn basis levels in Guymon, Oklahoma are at +$.60 — basis the December contract.
A CRUEL REMINDER
As summer turns to fall, we witness the time of year when calves are weaned from their mothers. Some ship directly to market and others remain in place but separated for 60-90 days while their immune systems adapt to the stress of weaning. Some of these animals have received vaccines prior to weaning – sometimes more than once. Others have received no vaccines and are shipped directly to auction markets where the health risk is shifted to someone else.
The results of weaning are all over the board and those assuring you of a positive health outcome are making a lucky guess at best. Across cattle country some operations or maybe most operations experience some level of harm from death rates and medicine costs from weaning. The positive outcomes hold the death loss to 1-2% while some of the most severe damage can result in 25% death losses.
Graphing the past 25 years would show death loss percentages rising over the years. A derivative graph would show medicine costs rising at the same time death losses have increased. Both vaccines and antibiotics are frequently ineffective for different reasons. Vaccines target certain pathogens and as those pathogens change, the vaccines fail to adjust annually to the new strains. Antibiotics are plagued with disease resistant bugs that fail to respond to treatments.
Little has been done in the livestock business to bring animal health up to standards demanded of the human health business. Large animal vets are in decline and most vets want to pursue careers with pets where it is not unusual for a pet to schedule month check up calls. Pets are treated like people and no expense spared when health downturns occur. The time is ripe for large animal health to undergo a makeover.
The start is new vaccines that identify the agents killing cattle and prepare the animal with the antibodies to ward off the disease. New technologies such as mRNA vaccines can not only target the pathogen agent but can inexpensively tweak the vaccination each year to fit new strains. Equally important is to recognize the role of the mother cow in passing along antibodies to the calf through milk delivery. One sure fire way to increase the national herd of cattle quickly is to eliminate the excessive death rates of $2500 calves.
CATTLE REPORT LIBRARY
Change is a necessity for any sustainable industry and sometimes necessary changes encounter obstacles in the form of stalwarts who refuse change. The Cattle Report has created a library page of opinions pieces published on these pages advocating fundamental and structure changes for the industry.
NOTE TO READERS
Sections of the newsletter are designed with hyperlinks to the appropriate source pages. The hyperlinks are in light blue within the report.
EXPLANATIONS OF BREAKEVEN/CLOSE OUT TABLES
Regional differences in grain and cattle basises create a difficulty in modeling a national composite for current close outs or a proforma forward look at a breakeven. Readers should consider your own area for adjustments to these models. Most calculations are basis relevant prices in Guymon, Oklahoma.
CURRENT BREAKEVEN PROJECTION
The Cattle Report introduces the FEEDER METER. The report estimates profit or loss for currently purchased feeder steers and projects a result 180 days out. The chart is interactive and updated every 15 minutes in real time based on changes in futures markets in grain and cattle. Corn basis information is based on current trade prices adjusted every two weeks. Feeder prices are based on the USDA index price for 800# steers and fed cattle sales are $2 cwt. premium the appropriate futures contract.
CURRENT CLOSE OUT
The Cattle Report estimates current profit or loss on cattle placed on feed 180 days ago. This report generated from industry averages attempts to simulate a typical close out based on the feeder index for 800# steers 180 days ago. The close out assumes grain was purchased at market each month. Selling prices and interest rates are based on prevailing benchmark quoted prices. This chart will change weekly.
Contact Us
The CATTLE REPORT will strive to answer all emails. Our editorial views are not always popular and sometime create controversy and are sometimes flat out wrong.