April 18, 2026
MARKETS
The sales of last week broke the end of week pattern of selling. A few cattle sold each day in each region for the entire week and the transaction price was near the same every day. In both the south and north live prices were mostly $248 with a few at $249 Friday. Dressed sales established a wider range of prices between $388 and $392.
Futures for cattle were more volatile than the cash markets — fluctuating from minute to minute or day to day driven by the rumor mill. Border opening, war news and misinformation regarding the cattle on feed report were passed over social media with no authentication.
Cattle on Feed Inventory, Placements, Marketings, and Other Disappearance on
1,000+ Capacity Feedlots - United States: April 1, 2025 and 2026
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Item : 2025 : 2026
---- 1,000 head ---- percent
On feed March 1 :........ 11,577 11,549 100
Placed on feed during March:........1,709 93
Fed cattle marketed : 1,727 1,632 94
Other disappearance :......... 55 50 91
On feed April 1 ............11,638 11,576 99
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This past week’s slaughter was 514,000 head — 2,000 over the previous week, and 64,000 under last year. The slaughter was flat with the previous week’s volume and two light weeks failed to invigorate the box market. Boxed beef ended on a weak note and some indications are surfacing of consumer resistence that up to this point has been resilient. Packers will remain on the defensive resorting to their only tool which is reducing the slaughter in each plant of closing a plant.
Falling futures prices whether driven by false rumors or underlying fundamentals are the current reality.
Benchmarking. On Tuesday of each week, USDA releases a weighted average price report for all cattle sold the previous week. The report summarizes the distributed price levels for each category of sale such as Negotiated/Formula/Forward Contracts. Beef producers are able to measure the marketing price for their cattle compared to the national averages.
The Comprehensive Fed Cattle Weekly Report offers the most current information on the current status of fed cattle being harvested. The report is published each Tuesday and includes the previous week’s change in carcass weights and quality grading. The latest report shows carcass weights at 958#, 3# higher than the prior week, and 43# heavier than last year. The combined steer and heifer weights can easily be influenced when the proportion of steers to heifers in the weekly slaughter changes. Quality grade was up .03% from the previous week at 89.6%. The quality grade should begin a slow decline lasting into summer, but with out weights at record highs, grading will remain high historically.
The Weekly Steer and Heifer Grading Report is indicative of regional supplies of choice and prime cattle and often is determinative of regional differences is live price. The report is also reflective of the current status of fed cattle offerings in each area.
Forward Cattle Contracts: Forward contracts will always bear some relationship to the corresponding futures month closest to the delivery month for the cattle. Basis levels will move up and down as processors want to add to forward contracts or not. The driver in forward purchases of cattle will always be forward sales of beef. Packers will always be willing to take a price risk off the producer’s plate in return for an extra margin.
The overheated replacement market will slow the forward contracting of purchases this year. The discounted price in the deferred futures contracts will not encourage cattle owners to forward price cattle at a loss. Favorable forward basis levels can always incentivize sellers to enter into basis contracts to be priced later.
Formula and Negotiated Grids. The Price and Distribution Report delineates the various selling methods and net results.
The Cattle Contracts Report details the percent of contracts by volume of cattle and by number of contracts for selling cattle. Formula selling that was once the largest marketing method and still is, but is losing ground to negotiated grids where the premiums and discounts are set but the base price is negotiated.
Beef demand will now transition from a historically soft seasonal period to the spring period that has featured improved demand. Demand normally improves following Easter. The high price of beef is always a threat or risk of damage to demand. To date it has been slight but there can come a tipping point and everyone is on the lookout for that point. Beef must suffer a loss of marketshare, not because of price, but simply because we are producing less beef.
USDA Prime cuts are carving out a larger slice of the grocery offerings. Many retailers are struggling to market these cuts and often feature discounts to encourage consumption. This is a benefit for consumers who find bargains on premium cuts. Heavy carcasses also are changing the processing specifications for some cuts. Many of the rib cuts are now cutting off the lip to make the ribeye steaks smaller.
The Cutout. Box prices were flat in late week trading. Red ink at the beef plants will cause late week slaughter volumes to resemble last week’s small volume.
The impact of larger cattle and higher quality grade percentages has been to provide consumers with increased volumes of higher quality beef. USDA Prime now exceeds the quantity the USDA Select grade. An abundance of Certified Angus beef has caused gyrations in pricing that sometimes loses the premiums in the maketplace. Retail stores are reformating both the cuts and the marketing strategies to adjust to the new reality of beef offerings.
Replacement markets
As we move into April, many areas are reporting hot dry weather that is forcing the remaining cattle on wheat fields to market. High prices and weather stressed grazing locations set the stage for movements. These cattle are moving into a marketplace hot for replacement numbers as empty pens occupy a large portion of the plains. Pasture operators are mirroring the feedlot model. Yearlings from grazing or grow yards are entering the feedyards at heavier weights. Only the dairy cross calves are coming to feedyard locales at light weights.
Modeling the breakevens for current purchases is enough to stress the most calm and rational of lenders but large negative margins at the feedlot level are foretelling trouble in the feeding sector. On any given turn of inventory, the negative margins at purchase might survive the loss by future cash increases far beyond current estimates. Eventually those margins will turn into losses and at the extremes, the current estimated losses will become magnified by a cash market that turns sharply lower instead of higher in the future marketing periods. Could a feedlot animal lose $1000/head?
The drought monitor is showing some areas of stress. The Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles, western Kansas, and parts of Colorado, Montana, and Wyoming are dry. The dry conditions in the central plains sets the stage for a high risk for wildfires. Nebraska has suffered wildfire losses of the magnitude of several hundred thousand acres. Moisture conditions and wild fire destruction is playing into the rebuilding of the nation’s cattle herd.
Compared to last week’s light test: Feeder steers steady to 5.00 higher. Feeder heifers 10.00-15.00 higher. Steer and heifer calves mostly steady, except 500-600 lb heifer calves up to 25.00 higher. Demand very good for feeder cattle. Several fleshy and or full cattle included and these selling near the average or even the top of the price range of last week. Quality improved with the day and average to attractive.
Slaughter cattle trade improved late last Friday with mostly 248.00, few 249.00 in Texas and Kansas and 248.00-250.00 in Nebraska. Several un-weaned calves included early in the sale. Beneficial rains fell in many areas over the weekend with more to come this week. Supply included: 100% Feeder Cattle (54% Steers, 44% Heifers, 2% Bulls). Feeder cattle supply over 600 lbs was 71%
Compared to last week: Steer calves over 500lbs 5.00-10.00 higher, under 500lbs steady. Last week, five-weight steers were only modestly higher while flyweight steers were dollars higher; this week was the exact opposite. Heifer calves were 5.00 to 10.00 higher. While no trend will be set on unweaned cattle, it was noteworthy that unweaned steer calves were lower, while unweaned heifer calves were higher. The
steer market started the day inconsistent, with some weight classes trading lower and others higher, but improved as the sale progressed. The heifer market, on the other hand, started strong and remained that way throughout the sale. Today’s sale included several drafts of brahma cross steers and heifers, thin fleshed, that sold close to number 1 money. Estimated receipts for tomorrow’s yearling sale are 5500
head. Supply included: 100% Feeder Cattle (54% Steers, 35% Heifers, 11% Bulls). Feeder cattle supply over 600 lbs was 24%
Feeder Cattle Cash Index. The index is tracking the moves in cash prices.
Video and Internet Replacement Cattle Auctions. The movement from traditional private treaty sales to Internet auctions has been slow but steady. Producers have chosen this option as the primary marketing tool for most of the cattle offered in the replacement markets. The market that was once dominated by one firm has seen new competition from multiple trade platforms.
National Weekly Feeder Summary released on Friday of each week tracks the national prices by region for last week.
Grain Futures. Corn prices softened. The most recent figures set corn acres at 95 billion acres– down 3 billion from last year. The basis levels are rising with the rising energy cost that makes transportation more expensive. Corn basis levels in Guymon, Oklahoma are at +$.65 — basis the May contract.
BEEF ON DAIRY MANIA
The beef on dairy cross calves provide everything a beef producer would want in a replacement animal for the feedyard. In the day of small pools of replacement offerings, they provide an alternative that is low turnover – often remaining in the feedyard for a year. They are good consumers of feed moving to peak consumption soon after arrival and remaining at that level until sale. They are very reliable performers converting feed at a very efficient rate and finally delivering admirable carcass results with only a small percentage failing to reach choice or prime.
These attractions are compelling and have brought on a mania – well known to market observers who recognize “irrational exuberance”. Beginning with tulip mania in Holland, shortages of tulip bulbs caused hoarding, then panic to buy and with every price increase more pressures to buy and eventually fraud exposed and collapse. During these periods of mania for a product, everyone wants in, and the results always seems to follow a similar pattern – windfall profits, then exorbitant profits, then demand far beyond true value and finally fraud – THE INTERNET BUBBLE, THE BLOCKCHAIN MANIA, THE AI CRAZE.
Dairy beef crosses come in two primary flavors – Holstein cows and Jersey cows. The cows are inseminated with Angus semen producing a day-old calf at the dairy that is sent to a calf farm for weaning and growing. They remain at the calf farm until they reach 400-600# at which point they are sold to a feedlot for finishing. The Jersey cross calf underperforms the Holstein calves and therefore sells for $150-$200 dollars less as day olds and down the line in the supply chain. Because the angus bulls often kick off a all black calf with both Jersey and Holstein cows, there is sometimes confusion about the breed in offerings of cattle for sale.
Various video auctions across the country list thousands of dairy cross calves for sale weekly or monthly. Buyers line up to buy these groups and current prices are sky high. Beef on dairy Holstein crosses weighing in the 600# range are selling for mid $400 cwt. while the same crosses in the 400# range are bringing in the mid $600s. For the pleasure of owning these animals on a fully hedged basis, the owner would find a loss of $3-400/head loss awaiting the end of the venture. Today’s quality grading climate also might disappoint the owner who finds much smaller premiums on the grid at the end.
MANDATORY PRICE REPORTING
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EXPLANATIONS OF BREAKEVEN/CLOSE OUT TABLES
Regional differences in grain and cattle basises create a difficulty in modeling a national composite for current close outs or a proforma forward look at a breakeven. Readers should consider your own area for adjustments to these models. Most calculations are basis relevant prices in Guymon, Oklahoma.
CURRENT BREAKEVEN PROJECTION
The Cattle Report introduces the FEEDER METER. The report estimates profit or loss for currently purchased feeder steers and projects a result 180 days out. The chart is interactive and updated every 15 minutes in real time based on changes in futures markets in grain and cattle. Corn basis information is based on current trade prices adjusted every two weeks. Feeder prices are based on the USDA index price for 800# steers and fed cattle sales are $2 cwt. premium the appropriate futures contract.
CURRENT CLOSE OUT
The Cattle Report estimates current profit or loss on cattle placed on feed 180 days ago. This report generated from industry averages attempts to simulate a typical close out based on the feeder index for 800# steers 180 days ago. The close out assumes grain was purchased at market each month. Selling prices and interest rates are based on prevailing benchmark quoted prices. This chart will change weekly.
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